Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:14:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2E 0x2eb3…ea01 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$496 (+18%) realized +$496 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR81%break-even
Win rate81%13W / 3L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$411
sports 9% +$174
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +81%
net ROI/market (all)+30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +44.2% +30.5% 81% 81% +9.4%
≤30d 16 +44.2% +30.5% 81% 81% +9.4%
≤90d 16 +44.2% +30.5% 81% 81% +9.4%
all 16 +44.2% +30.5% 81% 81% +9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.5% 81% +9.4%
10% +18.0% 69% -1.1%
15% +6.6% 56% -10.6%
20% -3.9% 44% -19.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +85% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$118 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.66 per $1 lost it wins $2.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$496
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses13 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage4d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $36 +$59 +165%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $373 +$54 +15%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$46 +226%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $436 +$100 +23%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $269 +$46 +17%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$65 +65%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $135 +$142 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $269 +$78 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $210 −$183 -87%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $136 +$51 +38%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$79 -77%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $224 +$99 +44%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $88 +$64 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $178 −$90 -51%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $115 +$63 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 78¢ $101 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $71 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $36 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 56¢ $136 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 81¢ $201 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 6h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 59¢ $101 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 86¢ $376 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $61 29h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $269 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 32h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $135 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 77¢ $269 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 6¢ $27 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $159 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $51 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 18¢ $23 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $136 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 98¢ $322 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $72 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $152 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $152 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $88 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 39¢ $88 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $178 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $115 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records