Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:02:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2E 0x2ead…8046 weather 925 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$253 (+1%) realized +$178 · open +$75
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate86%776W / 131L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day20.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$130
7 days−$4
14 days+$64
30 days+$229
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$210
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -0.9% -10.3% 89% 39% -9.6%
≤30d 250 +4.2% -5.7% 92% 45% -7.8%
≤90d 907 -0.9% -10.4% 86% 53% -8.8%
all 907 -0.9% -10.4% 86% 53% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 53% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 19% -17.5%
15% -26.8% 3% -25.5%
20% -33.9% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$13 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$1,150
Realized+$178
Unrealized+$75
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses776 / 131
Open positions18
Markets (closed)907 / 925
History coverage63d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day20.8
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 907 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? No 84¢ 99¢ $79 $93 +$14 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? No 89¢ 100¢ $81 $91 +$10 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 15? No 84¢ 100¢ $74 $88 +$14 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? No 87¢ 98¢ $78 $88 +$10 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 15? No 92¢ 100¢ $76 $83 +$7 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 15? No 91¢ 100¢ $74 $82 +$7 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? No 95¢ 100¢ $75 $79 +$4 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 15? No 96¢ 100¢ $73 $77 +$3 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? No 92¢ 86¢ $81 $76 −$5 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? No 96¢ 95¢ $76 $76 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 16? No 94¢ 97¢ $73 $75 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 16? No 89¢ 92¢ $73 $75 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? No 82¢ 76¢ $75 $69 −$6 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? No 76¢ 100¢ $30 $39 +$9 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 16? No 94¢ 100¢ $33 $35 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? No 85¢ 88¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? No 82¢ 84¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 17? No 96¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $73 +$7 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $12 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $76 +$6 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 15 $36 +$6 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 15 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 15 $67 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $54 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $73 +$8 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $66 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 15 $7 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $64 +$7 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $69 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $68 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $74 +$7 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $73 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $79 +$12 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $79 +$9 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $79 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $76 +$12 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $80 +$20 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $29 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 15 Jun 14 $70 −$70 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $59 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $80 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 13 $68 −$68 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 13 $80 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? Jun 13 $79 +$10 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? Jun 12 $73 −$73 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $13 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $18 +$3 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 11 $63 +$11 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $88 +$8 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 10? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 11 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $16 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $93 +$8 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $90 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $80 +$5 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $88 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $79 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 10 $45 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $21 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $92 +$6 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $95 +$11 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $93 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 82¢ $25 52m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 82¢ $5 58m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY No 82¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 82¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 82¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $13 15h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 90¢ $34 18h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 88¢ $11 18h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 88¢ $27 18h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 94¢ $73 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $75 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $76 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $76 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY No 84¢ $79 26h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $78 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $33 27h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 84¢ $4 28h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $11 30h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $40 30h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $9 30h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $9 30h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $7 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $76 31h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY No 80¢ $3 31h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY No 76¢ $23 35h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY No 75¢ $4 35h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 95¢ $29 42h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 96¢ $45 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,149.91 · official $1,149.02 (match) · 2143 history records