Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:02:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2E 0x2ead…caa3 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 558d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$58 (-5%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% $0
sports 15% −$58
politics 3% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 24 -13.6% -21.8% 0% 0% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 0% -14.3%
10% -29.3% 0% -22.5%
15% -36.1% 0% -30.0%
20% -42.4% 0% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$4 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

558d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage558d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $8 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $8 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 20 $6 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Titans win the AFC Championship? Nov 22 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Dolphins win the AFC Championship? Oct 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Cardinals win the NFC Championship? Aug 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Rams win Super Bowl 2025? Jul 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $2 $0 -8%
Will the Falcons win Super Bowl 2025? Jul 06 $787 $0 +0%
Will the Bears win Super Bowl 2025? Jun 04 $84 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Dinamo Zagreb win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 16 $0 $0 -17%
Red Wings vs. Devils Apr 16 $58 −$58 -100%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $2 $0 -2%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? Mar 28 $1 $0 -2%
Will Sporting CP win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 24 $0 $0 +0%
West Ham United wins the Premier League? Dec 04 $88 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 59m
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 59m
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $8 24d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 24d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 52d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 52d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $8 78d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $8 79d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $8 87d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 92d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 115d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 115d
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $8 142d
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $8 142d
Will the Titans win the AFC Championship? SELL No 100¢ $8 204d
Will the Titans win the AFC Championship? BUY No 100¢ $8 204d
Will the Dolphins win the AFC Championship? SELL No 100¢ $6 232d
Will the Dolphins win the AFC Championship? BUY No 100¢ $6 232d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $7 261d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 261d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $8 263d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $1 269d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $0 269d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes $1 269d
Will the Cardinals win the NFC Championship? SELL Yes $1 306d
Will the Cardinals win the NFC Championship? SELL Yes $1 306d
Will the Cardinals win the NFC Championship? BUY Yes $1 306d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 340d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $1 344d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 374d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 64 history records