Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:08:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

2E 0x2eac…f094 other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$21 (+0%) realized +$133 · open −$112

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip

Net edge-26%after slip

Net WR37%break-even

Win rate37%7W / 12L

Whale WR80%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$418per market

Trades / day4.9pace

Fees−$9est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +37%

net ROI/market (all)-22.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	-14.8%	-22.9%	37%	37%	-8.8%
≤30d	19	-14.8%	-22.9%	37%	37%	-8.8%
≤90d	19	-14.8%	-22.9%	37%	37%	-8.8%
all	19	-14.8%	-22.9%	37%	37%	-8.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-22.9%	37%	-8.8%
10%	-30.3%	26%	-17.6%
15%	-37.0%	26%	-25.5%
20%	-43.2%	16%	-32.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 28% · top 2 52% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -15% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,003) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -61% → late +27% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$238 vs −$139 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.0 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$88

Realized+$133

Unrealized−$112

Win rate (resolved)37%

Wins / losses7 / 12

Whale WR (big bets)80%

Est. fees paid−$9

Open positions1

Markets (closed)19 / 20

History coverage6d

Avg bet$418

Trades / day4.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	65¢	28¢	$200	$88	−$112 (-56%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$102	+$136	+134%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq?	Jun 23	$10	+$52	+510%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal?	Jun 22	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 22	$10	−$10	-98%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 22	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$1,010	+$461	+46%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq?	Jun 22	$10	−$10	-97%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 22	$102	−$57	-56%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 22	$202	+$138	+68%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$1,003	+$108	+11%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	Jun 21	$15	−$15	-98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	Jun 21	$15	−$15	-98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$1,010	+$403	+40%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 21	$101	−$1	-1%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$101	−$100	-99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5	Jun 20	$37	−$36	-98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$2,999	+$369	+12%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$1,298	−$1,298	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	65¢	$202	1h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal?	BUY Yes	9¢	$10	5h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal?	BUY Yes	15¢	$10	5h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal?	BUY Yes	10¢	$10	5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	42¢	$102	5h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq?	BUY Yes	16¢	$10	13h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq?	BUY Yes	7¢	$10	13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$1,010	14h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	SELL Yes	13¢	$42	25h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$102	26h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$340	27h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	93¢	$100	28h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	43¢	$102	28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	90¢	$1,003	38h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	BUY Yes	17¢	$15	39h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	BUY Yes	15¢	$15	39h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	96¢	$1,413	47h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	SELL Yes	58¢	$98	2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	SELL Yes	57¢	$3	2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	57¢	$101	2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	69¢	$101	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$1,010	2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	19¢	$37	3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$102	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$3,368	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$1,999	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	88¢	$1,000	4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$999	5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$299	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.66 · official $87.69 (match) · 34 history records