Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:03:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2E 0x2eab…0d60 other 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate45%20W / 24L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$1
other 24% +$1
politics 14% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 67% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 9 +0.2% -9.3% 44% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 12 +0.2% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.7%
all 44 +1.0% -8.7% 45% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 2% -9.4%
10% -17.4% 2% -18.1%
15% -25.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses20 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage458d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 22 $30 −$3 -11%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $76 +$1 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $74 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $92 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $39 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $39 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $36 +$1 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 20 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 07 $12 $0 +2%
Will Florian Lipowitz win the Tour de France 2025? Jul 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 07 $3 +$1 +27%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Jul 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio Jun 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 230 or more times May 30–June 6? Jun 07 $12 $0 +3%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $10 $0 +3%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $160-170m opening weekend? May 28 $2 $0 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Apr 18 $1 $0 +2%
Will Susie Wiles be out as White House Chief of Staff in Trump's first Apr 17 $10 $0 -0%
Trump meets with Zelenskyy in March? Mar 29 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 28 $13 $0 +1%
Will “Adolescence: Limited Series” be the top global Netflix show this Mar 21 $13 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $27 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 76¢ $4 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 75¢ $38 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 72¢ $40 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 66¢ $19 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 66¢ $16 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $36 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $39 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 26d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $40 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $40 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $12 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $5 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $17 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $6 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $30 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $36 28d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 28d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $39 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $39 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $39 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $39 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $36 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $36 30d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $12 32d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $22 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 136 history records