Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:24:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

2E 0x2eab…ac31 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$5 (-8%) realized −$2 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip

Net edge-56%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$13per market

Trades / day6.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-54.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-49.5%	-54.3%	50%	0%	-21.3%
≤30d	2	-49.5%	-54.3%	50%	0%	-21.3%
≤90d	2	-49.5%	-54.3%	50%	0%	-21.3%
all	2	-49.5%	-54.3%	50%	0%	-21.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-54.3%	0%	-21.3%
10%	-58.7%	0%	-28.8%
15%	-62.7%	0%	-35.7%
20%	-66.3%	0%	-42.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -13% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -49% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.06 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$27

Realized−$2

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions3

Markets (closed)2 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$13

Trades / day6.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	89¢	88¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	47¢	46¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	16¢	6¢	$5	$2	−$3 (-66%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$31	$0	+1%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	16¢	$5	1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$5	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$20	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	97¢	$31	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	96¢	$31	2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	6¢	$5	20h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.55 · official $26.55 (match) · 6 history records