Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2eab…744b crypto 723 markets active 0h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$16 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%440W / 278L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$18
14 days+$7
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$16
economics 0% −$2
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 +8.8% -1.5% 68% 68% -0.6%
≤30d 604 +0.3% -9.3% 62% 62% -9.0%
≤90d 718 -1.1% -10.5% 61% 61% -10.1%
all 718 -1.1% -10.5% 61% 61% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 61% -10.1%
10% -19.1% 61% -18.7%
15% -26.9% 61% -26.6%
20% -34.1% 60% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses440 / 278
Open positions3
Markets (closed)718 / 723
History coverage57d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 718 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Up 62¢ 6¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-90%)
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Up 64¢ 5¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-92%)
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Up 64¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 272 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +57%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +68%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +55%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +50%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +55%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +79%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +57%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +52%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +50%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +50%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +57%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +57%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +65%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +152%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +65%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +70%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +50%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +70%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 12m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 12m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 41m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 43m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 57m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 58m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 34h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 35h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 43h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 43h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 45h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.39 · official $1.11 (match) · 1185 history records