Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:14:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2ea8…51ca crypto 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$849 (-23%) realized −$849 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%9W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$705
other 5% −$194
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -9.4% -18.0% 38% 38% -27.1%
≤30d 26 -25.6% -32.7% 35% 35% -32.8%
≤90d 26 -25.6% -32.7% 35% 35% -32.8%
all 26 -25.6% -32.7% 35% 35% -32.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.7% 35% -32.8%
10% -39.1% 35% -39.2%
15% -45.0% 35% -45.1%
20% -50.4% 31% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$132 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$849
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses9 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage12d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $414 +$409 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $366 −$350 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $159 −$75 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $137 −$130 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 21 $195 −$185 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$58 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$15 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $105 +$250 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $163 −$155 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $132 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $105 +$264 +251%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $184 −$175 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $78 +$71 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 21 $53 −$50 -95%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $199 −$194 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 09 $80 −$75 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 09 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 09 $80 −$75 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $213 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 09 $185 −$175 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $207 +$179 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $236 +$88 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$16 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $158 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 115 history records