Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:37:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2E 0x2ea7…9d9a sports 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,796 (-10%) realized −$3,088 · open +$292
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%27W / 39L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$387per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$231est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$2,346now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,037
7 days−$1,770
14 days−$1,735
30 days−$2,687
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$3,821
other 37% +$1,858
world 7% −$1,928
crypto 5% +$1,058
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -27.6% -34.5% 40% 40% -20.5%
≤30d 63 -22.9% -30.3% 41% 41% -19.2%
≤90d 66 -23.4% -30.7% 41% 41% -20.5%
all 66 -23.4% -30.7% 41% 41% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.7% 41% -20.5%
10% -37.3% 39% -28.1%
15% -43.3% 38% -35.0%
20% -48.9% 30% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$540) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -34% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$377 vs −$341 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$2,346
Realized−$3,088
Unrealized+$292
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses27 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$231
Open positions6
Markets (closed)66 / 72
History coverage34d
Avg bet$387
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 41¢ 44¢ $1,021 $1,083 +$62 (+6%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 56¢ 55¢ $560 $545 −$15 (-3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $110 $385 +$275 (+250%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $246 $240 −$5 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $74 $64 −$10 (-13%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $44 $29 −$15 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $147 +$153 +104%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $510 +$490 +96%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $29 −$29 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Spain? Jun 21 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $680 +$320 +47%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $791 +$549 +70%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $792 +$598 +75%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $290 +$40 +14%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $590 +$410 +70%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $146 −$146 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $933 +$630 +68%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $280 −$280 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $101 +$74 +73%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $100 +$97 +96%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $170 −$170 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $307 −$300 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $230 −$230 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $204 +$485 +238%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $97 −$97 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $710 +$290 +41%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $74 +$56 +75%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $760 −$760 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $788 +$322 +41%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $295 −$291 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $292 +$138 +47%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $496 +$684 +138%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $487 −$487 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $154 −$151 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $144 −$144 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $150 −$150 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $152 −$150 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $498 −$498 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,928 −$1,928 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $458 −$449 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $100 −$98 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $592 −$580 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $540 +$460 +85%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $29 −$28 -96%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $498 +$292 +59%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,051 −$1,049 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $500 +$720 +144%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $746 +$854 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $567 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $147 9h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $44 9h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $18 9h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $21 10h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $731 10h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $10 10h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $1 10h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $2 10h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $194 10h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $29 10h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 12h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $44 13h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 13h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $21 13h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 13h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 13h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 13h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $425 13h
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Spain? BUY Yes 11¢ $29 14h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $251 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $680 24h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 59¢ $747 35h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 59¢ $44 35h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $7 35h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 35h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $34 35h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 35h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 35h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $66 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,345.93 · official $2,345.93 (match) · 332 history records