Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:48:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2ea7…87c7 sports 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$29 (-6%) realized −$22 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%45W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$17
14 days−$3
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$23
other 30% −$16
world 2% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +21.0% +9.5% 62% 62% +1.6%
≤30d 84 -2.7% -12.0% 54% 52% -14.7%
≤90d 84 -2.7% -12.0% 54% 52% -14.7%
all 84 -2.7% -12.0% 54% 52% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 52% -14.7%
10% -20.4% 52% -22.9%
15% -28.1% 49% -30.3%
20% -35.1% 33% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses45 / 39
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)84 / 89
History coverage14d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score No 62¢ 74¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 52¢ 21¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-60%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Spain 35¢ 10¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-70%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 56¢ 4¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 +$1 +40%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 +$8 +262%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$3 +62%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $3 +$3 +90%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 14 $3 +$3 +83%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 +$4 +70%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 +$11 +344%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -69%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $3 +$1 +40%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 +$7 +140%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 08 $6 −$5 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Jun 08 $3 +$2 +57%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $14 −$14 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $20 +$10 +50%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5) Jun 06 $10 +$6 +59%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $3 +$1 +46%
Singapore vs. China PR: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $5 +$7 +140%
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5) Jun 05 $4 +$1 +36%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5) Jun 05 $4 +$5 +124%
Exact Score: Singapore 1 - 3 China PR? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Singapore vs. China PR: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: China PR (-1.5) Jun 05 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: China PR (-2.5) Jun 05 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 05 $2 +$2 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $3 +$1 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $10 53m
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 35¢ $3 55m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 58m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 58m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $5 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 15h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 27¢ $3 15h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $3 15h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 80¢ $5 15h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $5 16h
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $3 23h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 58¢ $5 23h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $3 23h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 52¢ $3 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $10 23h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 32¢ $5 37h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 37h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $10 37h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 40h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 31¢ $5 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $5 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $5 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $5 2d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 22¢ $3 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 3d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 17¢ $2 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.80 · official $18.80 (match) · 155 history records