Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:20:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2E 0x2ea6…40e3 world 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
RISKYcopy with care
Total PnL +$721 (+8%) realized +$656 · open +$65
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate29%12W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$692now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$234
14 days+$375
30 days+$566
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% −$290
other 24% +$460
sports 9% −$6
economics 1% +$166
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +256.9% +222.9% 67% 67% +71.5%
≤30d 9 +87.5% +69.6% 56% 44% +21.9%
≤90d 41 +23.5% +11.7% 29% 24% -1.4%
all 41 +23.5% +11.7% 29% 24% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.7% 24% -1.4%
10% +1.0% 22% -10.8%
15% -8.7% 20% -19.5%
20% -17.7% 20% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$176 vs −$64 · ×2.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$692
Realized+$656
Unrealized+$65
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses12 / 29
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions4
Markets (closed)41 / 47
History coverage110d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 19¢ $468 $597 +$129 (+28%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $70 $45 −$25 (-35%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $29 $26 −$3 (-10%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $60 $23 −$37 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $153 −$150 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $80 +$182 +226%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 22 $31 +$203 +644%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $274 +$27 +10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $280 +$267 +95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $610 −$144 -24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $170 +$229 +135%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 08 $70 −$38 -55%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $30 −$30 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $750 −$214 -29%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 23 $500 −$111 -22%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $10 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $20 −$9 -44%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $50 +$11 +21%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 23 $30 −$5 -17%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $200 −$68 -34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 21 $130 −$103 -79%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $31 +$42 +138%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 21 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 19 $100 −$31 -31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 07 $270 +$90 +34%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 26 $100 −$7 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $1,060 −$256 -24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $750 −$96 -13%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? Apr 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $100 +$329 +329%
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? Apr 09 $510 −$269 -53%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 08 $40 −$40 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $40 +$227 +567%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $58 +$508 +877%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $30 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score AND Will DR Congo win on 20 BUY 31¢ $495 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $196 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $221 2h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $80 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $820 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $900 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $171 5d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 25¢ $117 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 5d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 25¢ $117 5d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 3¢ $31 10d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $205 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $276 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $254 12d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 3¢ $31 12d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $72 12d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $206 12d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 3¢ $31 12d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 97¢ $439 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 24¢ $109 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 31¢ $280 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $325 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $100 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $110 13d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? A BUY 35¢ $102 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $300 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $692.05 · official $1,177.48 · 224 history records