Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:01:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2ea6…971c crypto 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10 (-2%) realized −$34 · open +$24
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate9%1W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$8
crypto 39% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-54.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -32.6% -39.0% 0% 0% -31.2%
≤30d 11 -49.5% -54.3% 9% 9% -33.7%
≤90d 11 -49.5% -54.3% 9% 9% -33.7%
all 11 -49.5% -54.3% 9% 9% -33.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.3% 9% -33.7%
10% -58.7% 0% -40.0%
15% -62.7% 0% -45.8%
20% -66.3% 0% -51.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses1 / 10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage12d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $80 $94 +$14 (+18%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $22 +$10 (+80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $51 −$13 -26%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $31 −$8 -25%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $31 −$2 -8%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 06 $11 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 06 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 06 $56 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 06 $25 +$5 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $65 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $18 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $23 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $28 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $20 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes $10 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 71¢ $19 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 9d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 9d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 10d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $62 10d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $4 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $33 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $6 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $16 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.60 · official $115.60 (match) · 41 history records