Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:13:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2E 0x2ea0…d448 crypto 1738 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,677 (+4%) realized +$3,677 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate95%1653W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day37.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 47d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$996
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 -4.2% -13.3% 93% 3% -13.5%
≤30d 1244 -1.3% -10.7% 95% 5% -10.5%
≤90d 1738 -1.2% -10.6% 95% 6% -10.5%
all 1738 -1.2% -10.6% 95% 6% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 6% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 0% -19.0%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.9%
20% -34.2% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$53 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,677
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1653 / 85
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1738 / 1738
History coverage47d ⚠
Avg bet$55
Trades / day37.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1738 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $35 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $36 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $36 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $36 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 11 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $37 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $34 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $36 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $36 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 10 $36 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 10 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 10 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $37 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $36 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $35 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $36 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $36 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $35 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $36 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $35 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $35 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $35 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $36 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $36 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $36 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $36 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $35 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $35 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $35 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $36 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $35 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $36 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $35 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $36 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $36 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $36 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $35 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $36 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $36 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $36 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $37 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $34 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $35 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $36 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records