Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:07:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2ea0…2e62 crypto 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$34 (+4%) realized +$40 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate44%27W / 35L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days+$6
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$21
other 18% +$101
finance 10% −$36
sports 6% +$1
tech 3% −$12
weather 2% −$13
politics 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.9% -8.7% 33% 33% -20.4%
≤30d 9 -11.5% -19.9% 33% 33% -13.8%
≤90d 59 -23.4% -30.7% 44% 34% -20.7%
all 62 +6.8% -3.4% 44% 34% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 34% -9.3%
10% -12.6% 29% -18.0%
15% -21.1% 24% -25.9%
20% -28.8% 15% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +55% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$40
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses27 / 35
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage112d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $81 −$14 -17%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $5 $0 -6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$18 +175%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Nigeria? Jun 10 $10 +$7 +66%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Nigeria? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Chile? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $10 −$5 -47%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 5? May 03 $23 −$12 -53%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 26? Apr 26 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 26? Apr 26 $5 −$4 -76%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 27? Apr 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 12 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 12 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 12 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 12 $1 $0 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 11 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 11 $6 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 11 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 11 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 11 $57 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 11 $52 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 11 $32 +$21 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 11 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 11 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 11 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 11 $20 −$12 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 11 $44 +$17 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 11 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 11 $22 +$24 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 11 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 11 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 11 $10 +$6 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $47 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $18 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 7d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 82¢ $28 7d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $32 14d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Nigeria? SELL Yes 99¢ $17 14d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Nigeria? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 14d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 15d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Nigeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 16d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 16d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 16d
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 16d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Chile? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 18d
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 18d
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 44d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $10 44d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 5? BUY No 22¢ $12 52d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 5? SELL Yes 79¢ $9 52d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 5? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 52d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 52d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 26? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 60d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 26? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 60d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 26? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 60d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 26? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 60d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 27? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $6 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.70 · official $0.70 (match) · 197 history records