Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:34:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2E 0x2e9d…e9f4 weather 731 markets active 0h ago coverage 46d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d only
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,610 (+1%) realized +$2,610 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate95%697W / 33L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$290per market
Trades / day65.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$80
7 days+$354
14 days+$829
30 days+$1,472
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$2,541
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +3.5% -6.4% 100% 8% -8.3%
≤30d 345 +5.6% -4.5% 93% 8% -8.3%
≤90d 730 +3.8% -6.1% 95% 7% -8.4%
all 730 +3.8% -6.1% 95% 7% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.1% 7% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -15.1% 4% -17.2%
15% -23.3% 3% -25.2%
20% -30.8% 2% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×29.91 per $1 lost it wins $29.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$2,610
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses697 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)730 / 731
History coverage46d ⚠
Avg bet$290
Trades / day65.2
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 730 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 19? Jun 19 $174 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 19? Jun 19 $428 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 19? Jun 19 $173 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $399 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $358 +$42 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 19? Jun 19 $399 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $174 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? Jun 17 $2,369 +$29 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 17? Jun 17 $437 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? Jun 17 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 17? Jun 17 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $276 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 17? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $293 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $191 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 17? Jun 16 $2,395 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $344 +$56 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $396 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2,388 +$9 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $372 +$28 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 15 $396 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 15 $11 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 15 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $73 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1,597 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 15 $286 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1,177 +$22 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $396 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $80 +$79 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $396 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 14? Jun 14 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 61°F or below on June 1 Jun 14 $1,597 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $266 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $397 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $220 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $177 26m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $174 33m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $200 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $200 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $128 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $228 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $173 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $173 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $46 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $46 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or below on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $400 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $399 5h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $400 7h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 89¢ $358 7h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $400 10h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $399 10h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $176 25h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $9 25h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $20 25h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $145 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $2,398 40h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $177 40h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $399 40h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $399 40h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $399 40h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $399 40h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $399 40h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $196 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.23 · official $3.00 (match) · 3491 history records