trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 33% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤30d | 12 | -15.6% | -23.6% | 33% | 0% | -16.5% |
| ≤90d | 18 | -8.5% | -17.2% | 50% | 6% | -15.9% |
| all | 20 | -7.5% | -16.3% | 55% | 5% | -15.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.3% | 5% | -15.8% |
| 10% | -24.3% | 5% | -23.9% |
| 15% | -31.7% | 5% | -31.3% |
| 20% | -38.4% | 5% | -38.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 83¢ | 82¢ | $77 | $77 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | No | 88¢ | 88¢ | $48 | $48 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 95¢ | 94¢ | $44 | $43 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | No | 91¢ | 91¢ | $29 | $29 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 29 | $64 | $0 | +1% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | Jun 29 | $64 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 29 | $81 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 20 | $23 | +$1 | +5% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 20 | $28 | −$22 | -80% |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 20 | $12 | −$4 | -32% |
| Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Jun 20 | $31 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 20 | $68 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 20 | $73 | −$3 | -4% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 06 | $12 | −$8 | -72% |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jun 06 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Jun 06 | $1 | $0 | -5% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | May 27 | $3 | +$3 | +104% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 27 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Will France win Eurovision 2026? | May 27 | $1 | $0 | +7% |
| Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | May 27 | $1 | $0 | +10% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 15? | May 06 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | May 06 | $1 | $0 | +8% |
| Rainbow FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Feb 28 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Rainbow FDV above $800M one day after launch? | Feb 28 | $2 | $0 | +1% |