Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:15:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e9d…8fa6 crypto 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$51 (-18%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%36W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$55
other 12% −$14
sports 5% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +0.1% -9.4% 76% 65% -5.8%
≤30d 17 +0.1% -9.4% 76% 65% -5.8%
≤90d 53 -2.0% -11.3% 57% 51% -36.8%
all 64 -2.2% -11.5% 56% 52% -36.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 52% -36.7%
10% -20.0% 41% -42.8%
15% -27.7% 25% -48.3%
20% -34.8% 14% -53.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses36 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage220d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $31 −$14 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 12 $2 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 12 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 12 $1 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 01 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 01 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 01 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 01 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 01 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 01 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 30 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 30 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 30 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 30 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 30 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 30 $12 +$5 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 30 $7 +$5 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 30 $7 −$5 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 30 $6 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 30 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 30 $4 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 22 $11 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 22 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 22 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 22 $7 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 22 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 22 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 22 $11 −$1 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 147 history records