Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:08:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
2E 0x2e9c…3095 other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$8 (+6%) realized +$9 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%20W / 22L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$9
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$6
crypto 24% +$3
world 17% +$6
finance 16% +$1
politics 9% −$1
sports 5% +$4
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -9.3% -17.9% 50% 40% -27.0%
≤30d 22 +9.0% -1.3% 55% 45% -7.5%
≤90d 41 +1.2% -8.4% 46% 41% -8.1%
all 42 +15.7% +4.7% 48% 43% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.7% 43% -2.3%
10% -5.3% 36% -11.6%
15% -14.5% 31% -20.1%
20% -22.8% 24% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses20 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)42 / 53
History coverage94d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 84¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 74¢ 74¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 76¢ 69¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-9%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 34¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+57%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 48¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-29%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Larry Wheels divorce by June 30? No 70¢ 79¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 29¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $3 $0 +4%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -89%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +61%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +113%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -19%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +17%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 -8%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +25%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1 $0 -8%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 08 $1 $0 -13%
BNB Up or Down - June 6, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 03 $18 −$6 -33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $2 +$1 +48%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 30 $2 +$6 +274%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $10 +$4 +40%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 23 $2 +$1 +47%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $1 $0 -16%
Will the fight be won by submission? May 10 $1 +$1 +86%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $2 +$3 +159%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1 $0 -23%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $1 $0 -11%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $1 $0 -7%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 18 $3 +$2 +72%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $2 +$1 +54%
Will Trump say "Jesus Christ" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? Apr 07 $2 +$2 +96%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 -20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 19 $6 −$3 -49%
Will Powell say "Sorry" or "Pardon" during March press conference? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 9-15? Mar 16 $1 +$6 +612%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 65¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 65¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $2 1h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 68¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 4d
Larry Wheels divorce by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 7d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $2 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 57¢ $1 8d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 34¢ $1 8d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 8d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 79¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.19 · official $42.20 (match) · 124 history records