Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:43:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e99…b482 weather 1486 markets active 14h ago coverage 54d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d only
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$484 (-2%) realized −$226 · open −$258
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate25%356W / 1073L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day55.3pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$742now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$204
7 days+$67
14 days+$201
30 days+$462
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 35% +$185
politics 32% −$284
world 25% +$190
other 8% −$266
finance 0% +$6
tech 0% −$7
crypto 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -63.0% -66.5% 21% 15% -5.5%
≤30d 443 +2.4% -7.3% 34% 31% -6.9%
≤90d 1429 -19.5% -27.2% 25% 23% -10.7%
all 1429 -19.5% -27.2% 25% 23% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.2% 23% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -34.1% 22% -19.3%
15% -40.5% 21% -27.1%
20% -46.3% 20% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -28% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$5 · ×2.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$742
Realized−$226
Unrealized−$258
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses356 / 1073
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Open positions18
Markets (closed)1429 / 1486
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day55.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 1429 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 84¢ $350 $591 +$241 (+69%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 16¢ $350 $109 −$241 (-69%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-14%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+25%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+34%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-23%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+27%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 16? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 16? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 16? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 481 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 19? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 13? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 23? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Ap Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 22? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 21? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on April 23? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 22 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 20? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on June 13? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 23? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ap Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 22? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on June 13? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 10? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ap Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on April Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 10? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 10? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on April 22? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 24? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 21? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 22? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 24? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 24? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 22 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 23? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 22? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 21? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 20? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on June 13? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 24? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Ap Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 23? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 22? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on June 13? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 23? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 19? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 19? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on April 23? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on Apri Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 21? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 20? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on April 24 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 10? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 71°F or below on April 19? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on Apri Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on April 23? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? SELL Yes 85¢ $69 13h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? SELL Yes 85¢ $49 13h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 16h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 44¢ $17 16h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? SELL Yes 43¢ $68 16h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? SELL Yes 44¢ $12 16h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? SELL Yes 45¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 17h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? SELL Yes 45¢ $4 17h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? SELL Yes 45¢ $36 17h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 18h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 18h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 16? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 20h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $17 20h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 49¢ $8 20h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 49¢ $52 20h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 48¢ $27 20h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 49¢ $113 20h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? SELL Yes 85¢ $164 37h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? SELL Yes 85¢ $5 37h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? SELL Yes 85¢ $20 37h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? SELL Yes 85¢ $5 37h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? SELL Yes 85¢ $4 37h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 55¢ $37 44h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 55¢ $28 44h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 55¢ $28 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $742.05 · official $742.06 (match) · 3500 history records