Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:43:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

2E 0x2e99…1f91 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$192 (-30%) realized −$188 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip

Net edge-41%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%4W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$70per market

Trades / day5.4pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit22%portable

Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-38.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	-32.1%	-38.5%	50%	50%	-38.9%
≤30d	8	-32.1%	-38.5%	50%	50%	-38.9%
≤90d	8	-32.1%	-38.5%	50%	50%	-38.9%
all	8	-32.1%	-38.5%	50%	50%	-38.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-38.5%	50%	-38.9%
10%	-44.4%	25%	-44.7%
15%	-49.8%	12%	-50.0%
20%	-54.7%	0%	-54.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 40% · top 2 70% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -32% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$18 vs −$67 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.27 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$26

Realized−$188

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses4 / 4

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)8 / 9

History coverage2d

Avg bet$70

Trades / day5.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	59¢	52¢	$30	$26	−$4 (-13%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$26	+$5	+18%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$128	−$102	-80%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$110	+$17	+16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$89	+$21	+24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$59	+$30	+50%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$23	−$23	-100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$162	−$139	-85%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	59¢	$30	1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	84¢	$26	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	16¢	$26	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$128	14h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	86¢	$110	16h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	80¢	$89	23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$59	38h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$5	40h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	68¢	$23	47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	10¢	$24	47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	66¢	$162	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.19 · official $26.19 (match) · 17 history records