Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:16:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e98…fd1a other 249 markets active 0h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%14W / 235L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$18
14 days−$31
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$51
sports 26% −$25
politics 8% −$6
economics 6% −$6
culture 5% −$4
world 4% $0
crypto 3% −$1
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 66 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 187 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 249 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses14 / 235
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)249 / 249
History coverage134d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 249 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $477 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $124 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $637 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $403 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,244 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $257 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $277 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $140 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $356 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $147 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $437 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $357 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $401 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $58 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $251 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $193 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $193 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $673 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $209 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $274 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $220 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $373 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $501 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $299 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $219 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $563 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 08 $435 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $61 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $445 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $916 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 07 $419 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $235 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $63 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $147 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $128 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $197 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $213 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $295 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $623 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $336 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 12m
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 1h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 3h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 5h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 6h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 8h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 10h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 12h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 12h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 14h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 22h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 24h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $25 26h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $10 28h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $34 30h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 31h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 32h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 34h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 36h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $57 40h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $57 42h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 43h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 45h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $19 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $38 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $57 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1399 history records