Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:07:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e97…3d6d crypto 893 markets active 7d ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (265 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$70 (-2%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate88%782W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day264.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (265 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +7.7% -2.5% 94% 17% -4.3%
≤30d 893 -0.4% -9.9% 88% 21% -11.9%
≤90d 893 -0.4% -9.9% 88% 21% -11.9%
all 893 -0.4% -9.9% 88% 21% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover264.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 21% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 5% -20.3%
15% -26.4% 1% -28.0%
20% -33.6% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses782 / 111
Open positions0
Markets (closed)893 / 893
History coverage6d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day264.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 893 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2254 history records