Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:16:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e96…0d3e other 30 markets active 5d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$87 (-16%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate23%7W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day34.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$46
finance 30% −$22
sports 18% −$21
economics 6% $0
world 5% +$2
politics 3% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -24.7% -31.8% 22% 4% -28.1%
≤30d 30 -20.2% -27.8% 23% 10% -24.8%
≤90d 30 -20.2% -27.8% 23% 10% -24.8%
all 30 -20.2% -27.8% 23% 10% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.8% 10% -24.8%
10% ← realistic here -34.7% 0% -32.0%
15% -41.0% 0% -38.6%
20% -46.8% 0% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses7 / 23
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage4d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day34.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 13 $18 −$2 -9%
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.1B? Jun 13 $20 +$4 +19%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 13 $53 −$5 -9%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 13 $7 −$1 -8%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in June? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -96%
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? Jun 12 $11 −$9 -82%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? Jun 12 $12 −$6 -48%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 12 $23 −$1 -4%
Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on I Jun 12 $5 −$1 -23%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June? Jun 12 $10 −$3 -33%
Will Natus Vincere make a roster change before July? Jun 12 $10 −$3 -32%
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? Jun 12 $15 −$3 -21%
Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on I Jun 12 $16 −$5 -28%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? Jun 12 $22 −$10 -43%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $25 +$2 +8%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Jun 12 $7 $0 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $12 −$3 -24%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $6 $0 +8%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $32 $0 -1%
Will nocries play an HLTV-recorded match by June 30? Jun 11 $15 −$5 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $11 $0 +4%
Will Oura's market cap be between $10B and $12.5B at market close on I Jun 11 $10 −$4 -40%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $18 −$14 -78%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 11 $15 +$2 +14%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 10 $71 −$13 -18%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? Jun 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Jun 10 $23 −$2 -9%
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.85B? Jun 10 $21 −$1 -7%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? Jun 09 $24 +$3 +12%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $10 −$3 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 4d
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.1B? SELL Yes 24¢ $24 4d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? SELL Yes 34¢ $34 4d
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 5d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 35¢ $14 5d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 35¢ $18 5d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 5d
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 5d
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.1B? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 5d
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.1B? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 5d
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 5d
Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on I SELL Yes 8¢ $4 5d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 5d
Will Natus Vincere make a roster change before July? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 5d
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $12 5d
Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on I SELL Yes 12¢ $12 5d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $13 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 19¢ $0 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 19¢ $10 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 17¢ $9 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 5d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 5d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 5d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 5d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 137 history records