Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:58:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2E 0x2e93…69d5 weather 802 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d only
✗ bot/MM pace (75 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,313 (+1%) realized +$1,328 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate94%719W / 48L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$261per market
Trades / day74.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$4,511now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$6
14 days+$60
30 days+$233
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 91% +$828
sports 6% −$37
other 4% −$35
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (75 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -3.3% -12.5% 94% 5% -9.5%
≤30d 717 +0.7% -8.9% 94% 6% -9.4%
≤90d 767 +1.4% -8.3% 94% 6% -9.2%
all 767 +1.4% -8.3% 94% 6% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 6% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 3% -17.9%
15% -25.1% 2% -25.8%
20% -32.4% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.81 per $1 lost it wins $6.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$4,511
Realized+$1,328
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses719 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions34
Markets (closed)767 / 802
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$261
Trades / day74.5
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 767 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,099 $1,099 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $594 $594 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $593 $593 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $483 $483 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C or higher on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $373 $373 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $300 $300 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $237 $238 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $176 $176 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $159 $159 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 82¢ $102 $99 −$3 (-3%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 70¢ $112 $99 −$13 (-12%)
Will DR Congo win the World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Senegal win the World Cup? No 99¢ 96¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 98¢ 94¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will South Africa be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Curaçao be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will France be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Uzbekistan win the World Cup? No 100¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? No 37¢ 36¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Africa be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Shakira perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Yes 97¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? No 93¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? No 86¢ 88¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on May 8? Jun 19 $0 −$1 -161%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 $0 +31%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1,333 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2,198 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 18? Jun 18 $649 +$1 +0%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? Jun 18 $155 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 17? Jun 18 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 17? Jun 18 $356 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 17? Jun 18 $376 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 17? Jun 18 $72 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 17? Jun 18 $500 $0 +0%
Will Harry Kane be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $239 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2,198 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 17? Jun 17 $292 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $699 +$1 +0%
Will Diogo Dalot be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will Rúben Dias be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 17? Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $479 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,269 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $140 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $467 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 15? Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 86°F or higher on June 15? Jun 16 $105 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $599 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $91 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 15? Jun 15 $403 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $90 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1,678 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $191 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 86°F or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $599 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $970 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1,399 +$1 +0%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $17 −$17 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $127 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $243 $0 +0%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? BUY No 37¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $150 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $77 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $159 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $227 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $136 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $79 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $138 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $175 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $80 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $109 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $16 3h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $23 3h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $585 3h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $7 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,510.93 · official $4,510.41 (match) · 3500 history records