Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:06:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e92…23fa world 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 479d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate55%31W / 25L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$3
other 30% −$1
politics 5% +$1
crypto 4% +$1
sports 2% $0
weather 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 25 +0.9% -8.8% 52% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 25 +0.9% -8.8% 52% 0% -9.3%
all 56 -1.5% -10.9% 55% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 0% -9.3%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.0%
15% -27.2% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

479d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses31 / 25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)56 / 58
History coverage479d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 86¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $42 $0 -1%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $46 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $39 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 24 $43 −$1 -2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $34 +$1 +2%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $18 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $44 $0 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $44 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $46 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $26 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $54 +$1 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $50 $0 -1%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $19 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $45 −$1 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $46 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $19 +$1 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $44 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $48 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $47 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $43 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Jul 15 $19 $0 +1%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or May 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? May 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump lower tariffs on China by May 31? May 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? May 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? May 10 $15 $0 +0%
UEFA Europa League: Tottenham vs. Bodø/Glimt (To Advance) May 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $17 $0 -2%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 05 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? Apr 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 28 - April 4? Mar 31 $16 $0 +2%
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April? Mar 31 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 30 $16 $0 +1%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? Mar 25 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Mar 23 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 66°F or higher on March 22? Mar 23 $18 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $18 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $11 18m
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $31 18m
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $34 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $8 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $46 2h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $46 4h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $39 16h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 91¢ $6 17h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 91¢ $33 17h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 52¢ $4 20h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 52¢ $3 20h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 52¢ $36 20h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 53¢ $6 24h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 53¢ $38 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 37h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $16 39h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $8 45h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 46h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $35 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $34 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $18 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $18 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $10 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $35 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $44 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $21 9d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $23 9d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.71 · official $0.37 (match) · 155 history records