Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:54:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e8b…a452 world 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate46%38W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$10
other 26% −$1
sports 14% −$1
economics 13% +$1
finance 2% +$1
politics 1% +$2
crypto 1% +$1
tech 0% +$8
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 14% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 28 +72.2% +55.8% 36% 7% -9.9%
≤90d 38 +53.0% +38.4% 37% 5% -9.7%
all 83 +24.7% +12.9% 46% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.9% 6% -9.6%
10% +2.1% 5% -18.2%
15% -7.8% 5% -26.1%
20% -16.8% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses38 / 45
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage478d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $159 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $161 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $157 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $147 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $68 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $116 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $146 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $145 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $144 +$2 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $266 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $125 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $40 +$6 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $67 +$7 +10%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $134 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $132 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $23 +$3 +13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $122 +$9 +7%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $105 −$3 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $199 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 05 $136 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $137 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $125 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $398 −$39 -10%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $184 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $137 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 27 $6 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 25 $140 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $154 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $140 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $138 +$2 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $7 $0 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $9 $0 -2%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $354 −$2 -1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $53 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $1,007 +$1 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $1,007 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $1,006 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $22 +$1 +6%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 22 $2 +$1 +68%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $22 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $24 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 1? Jul 06 $23 $0 +2%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Jun 26 $19 +$1 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 26 $5 $0 -5%
Will Collin Morikawa win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 17 $2 $0 -5%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 51¢ $6 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 51¢ $153 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 51¢ $159 2h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $161 27h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $161 27h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 90¢ $157 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 90¢ $157 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $146 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $147 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $70 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $66 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $116 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $106 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $33 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $114 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $13 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $71 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $62 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $69 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $58 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $20 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $144 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $4 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.42 · official $2.94 (match) · 279 history records