Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:25:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2E 0x2e88…24d1 other 6 markets active 9h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$15 (+2%) realized +$20 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$551now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -12.2% -20.5% 0% 0% -20.5%
≤30d 1 -12.2% -20.5% 0% 0% -20.5%
≤90d 1 -12.2% -20.5% 0% 0% -20.5%
all 1 -12.2% -20.5% 0% 0% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 0% -20.5%
10% -28.1% 0% -28.1%
15% -35.1% 0% -35.1%
20% -41.4% 0% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$17 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$551
Realized+$20
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 54¢ $185 $193 +$8 (+4%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $183 $181 −$2 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 51¢ $113 $106 −$7 (-6%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $60 $56 −$4 (-7%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $137 −$17 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $64 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $53 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $89 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $104 25h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $16 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 50¢ $120 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $74 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $61 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $58 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $74 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $69 27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $63 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $551.01 · official $556.26 (match) · 12 history records