Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:22:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

2E 0x2e80…787b other 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 215d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge

✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$2,796 (+21%) realized +$2,660 · open +$136

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip

Net edge-1%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate53%16W / 14L

Whale WR88%big bets

Drawdown44%max

Avg bet$429per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$22est.

Kalshi-fit45%portable

Net worth$855now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$243

7 days+$598

14 days+$598

30 days+$387

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-0.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+38.7%	+25.5%	100%	67%	+22.0%
≤30d	4	+4.0%	-5.9%	75%	50%	+8.6%
≤90d	9	+26.8%	+14.7%	78%	67%	+30.4%
all	30	+9.5%	-0.9%	53%	50%	+10.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-0.9%	50%	+10.4%
10%	-10.4%	47%	-0.1%
15%	-19.0%	43%	-9.8%
20%	-27.0%	40%	-18.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

6% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +10% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 88% (≥$615) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +20% → late -1% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$422 vs −$285 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

215d coverage

Net worth$855

Realized+$2,660

Unrealized+$136

Win rate (resolved)53%

Wins / losses16 / 14

Whale WR (big bets)88%

Est. fees paid−$22

Open positions1

Markets (closed)30 / 31

History coverage215d

Avg bet$429

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown44%

Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 30 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Under	69¢	82¢	$719	$855	+$136 (+19%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Norway to win the second half?	Jun 23	$704	+$23	+3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$483	+$221	+46%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$528	+$355	+67%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	May 25	$215	−$212	-98%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17?	May 17	$615	+$175	+28%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27?	Apr 28	$270	+$262	+97%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-26?	Apr 26	$1,113	+$953	+86%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-18?	Apr 18	$380	−$373	-98%
Lakers vs. Warriors	Apr 10	$709	+$806	+114%
Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5	Mar 11	$269	−$264	-98%
Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 242.5	Mar 11	$246	+$32	+13%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10?	Mar 11	$161	+$108	+67%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10?	Mar 10	$383	−$222	-58%
Spread: Suns (-10.5)	Mar 04	$488	−$368	-75%
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. Parma Calcio 1913 end in a draw?	Feb 08	$70	−$70	-100%
Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)	Jan 25	$282	−$282	-100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-01-25?	Jan 25	$168	+$182	+108%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-21?	Jan 22	$829	+$828	+100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-20?	Jan 20	$142	−$142	-100%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-01-19?	Jan 19	$189	−$189	-100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-15?	Jan 16	$127	+$190	+150%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-01-10?	Jan 10	$200	−$200	-100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-01-09?	Jan 10	$364	+$546	+150%
Bucks vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5	Jan 08	$831	+$743	+89%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-01-03?	Jan 03	$39	−$39	-100%
Pistons vs. Clippers: O/U 223.5	Dec 29	$128	−$120	-94%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Dec 17	$1,113	−$1,049	-94%
Spurs vs. Thunder	Dec 14	$128	+$512	+400%
Clippers vs. Rockets	Dec 12	$456	−$456	-100%
Rockets vs. Cavaliers	Nov 20	$927	+$820	+88%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Under	69¢	$726	16m
Norway to win the second half?	SELL Yes	82¢	$727	1h
Norway to win the second half?	BUY Yes	79¢	$704	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$483	10h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$883	3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	59¢	$528	3d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	BUY Cavaliers	47¢	$215	28d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17?	SELL Yes	76¢	$790	36d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$615	36d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27?	BUY Yes	50¢	$270	56d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-26?	SELL Yes	70¢	$2,066	57d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-26?	BUY Yes	37¢	$1,113	57d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-18?	BUY Yes	32¢	$380	65d
Lakers vs. Warriors	SELL Lakers	100¢	$1,514	73d
Lakers vs. Warriors	BUY Lakers	46¢	$709	74d
Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5	SELL Over	1¢	$5	103d
Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5	BUY Over	55¢	$269	104d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10?	BUY Yes	60¢	$161	104d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10?	SELL Yes	24¢	$161	104d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10?	BUY Yes	57¢	$383	104d
Spread: Suns (-10.5)	SELL Kings	18¢	$121	110d
Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 242.5	SELL Under	100¢	$278	110d
Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 242.5	BUY Under	88¢	$246	110d
Spread: Suns (-10.5)	BUY Kings	73¢	$488	110d
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. Parma Calcio 1913 end in a draw?	BUY Yes	57¢	$70	134d
Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)	BUY Timberwolves	57¢	$282	148d
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-01-25?	SELL Yes	100¢	$351	148d
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-01-25?	BUY Yes	48¢	$168	148d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,657	152d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-21?	BUY Yes	50¢	$829	152d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $855.27 · official $839.63 · 54 history records