Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:35:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e80…6910 sports 918 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,084 (-9%) realized −$1,083 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%470W / 462L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$191
14 days−$132
30 days−$193
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$656
weather 19% −$201
crypto 15% −$155
other 5% −$131
politics 0% −$9
world 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -56.6% -60.8% 22% 22% -49.9%
≤30d 170 -22.3% -29.7% 42% 41% -25.2%
≤90d 551 -13.8% -22.0% 51% 49% -21.1%
all 932 -12.8% -21.1% 50% 47% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 47% -18.7%
10% -28.7% 40% -26.4%
15% -35.6% 29% -33.6%
20% -41.9% 20% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$1,083
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses470 / 462
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions16
Markets (closed)932 / 918
History coverage152d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 932 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Over 77¢ 76¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 23? Yes 9¢ 28¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+213%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? Yes 9¢ 34¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+268%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? Yes 9¢ 22¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+147%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 22? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+73%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 22? Yes 9¢ 14¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+48%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 23? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-47%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 39°C on June 23? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-89%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 22? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-87%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 40°C on June 23? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 22? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 42°C or higher on June 23? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 41°C on June 23? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 21? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 20? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 20? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 18? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 19? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 22°C on June 19? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C or below on June 19? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 18? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 19? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 18? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 19? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 20? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 20? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 20? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 18? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 19? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 18? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 20? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 20? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on June 19? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 23°C on June 19? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 20? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 19? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $44 −$6 -14%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $17 +$6 +37%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $10 +$3 +32%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $32 +$11 +34%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $5 +$4 +79%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $7 +$5 +79%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 +$3 +60%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $10 +$7 +65%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $5 +$3 +62%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $5 +$5 +105%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $5 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 −$8 -77%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 +$5 +34%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Kawkab AC vs. Raja Club Athletic end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FathUnionSport vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: FathUnionSport 1 - 1 Difaâ Hassani El Jadida? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: FathUnionSport 2 - 1 Difaâ Hassani El Jadida? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $23 37m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $36 41m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 99¢ $24 57m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Paper Rex 0¢ $0 58m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 92¢ $34 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 5¢ $1 1h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 75¢ $10 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $42 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $32 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 63¢ $12 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 21¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or below on June 22? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C or higher on June 22? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 22? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 22? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 22? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? SELL Yes 50¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 21? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 41¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 23? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 23? BUY No 57¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 69¢ $10 13h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $5 24h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? SELL Yes 77¢ $22 28h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 61¢ $5 29h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 55¢ $5 30h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 55¢ $7 31h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.82 · official $45.00 (match) · 2220 history records