Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:26:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
2E 0x2e7e…128b crypto 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist
Total PnL +$378 (+18%) realized +$378 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +33% what you keep after slip
Net edge+33%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%34W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$318
7 days+$318
14 days+$205
30 days+$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$471
other 8% −$176
culture 3% −$7
sports 2% +$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+33.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +25.3% +13.4% 41% 41% +37.6%
≤30d 34 +20.0% +8.6% 38% 38% +9.2%
≤90d 46 +5.1% -4.9% 37% 37% -1.5%
all 90 +47.3% +33.3% 38% 38% +5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +33.3% 38% +5.9%
10% +20.5% 38% -4.3%
15% +8.9% 36% -13.5%
20% -1.8% 36% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +87% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$21 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$378
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses34 / 56
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)90 / 90
History coverage105d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 90 Trades
no open positions (47 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 26 $21 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $72 +$62 +86%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND Jun 26 $25 +$36 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $206 +$174 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$23 +217%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 26 $11 +$37 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 26 $21 +$20 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 26 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $21 +$161 +756%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $11 +$8 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -94%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$24 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$22 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$46 +218%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 +$60 +292%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$33 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 03 $118 −$99 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 03 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 03 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 03 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 03 $114 +$35 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 03 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 03 $60 +$63 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 03 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 03 $20 +$34 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Apr 03 $30 −$24 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 03 $20 −$19 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Mar 17 $16 +$20 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Mar 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $134 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 2h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND SELL 99¢ $61 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 4h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 40¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $380 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $103 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $33 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $16 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $21 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 173 history records