Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:59:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2E 0x2e7d…ea60 crypto 1633 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 106d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$285 (+1%) realized +$285 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%1610W / 23L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$8
14 days+$17
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$226
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.6% -10.1% 97% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 165 +2.0% -7.7% 99% 0% -7.6%
≤90d 976 +0.3% -9.2% 98% 1% -9.1%
all 1633 +0.8% -8.8% 99% 1% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 1% -9.0%
10% -17.6% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$23 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$285
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1610 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1633 / 1633
History coverage107d ⚠
Avg bet$23
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1633 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $31 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $31 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 23 $31 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $29 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 20 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 19 $11 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $11 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $11 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $11 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $11 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $11 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $31 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $31 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $20 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $31 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $29 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $31 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $31 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $11 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $11 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $11 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $11 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.00 · official $11.00 (match) · 3500 history records