Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:28:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e77…f913 crypto 199 markets active 5d ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$48 (-12%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%58W / 141L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day41.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -15.1% -23.2% 27% 27% -29.5%
≤30d 199 -15.8% -23.9% 29% 29% -22.4%
≤90d 199 -15.8% -23.9% 29% 29% -22.4%
all 199 -15.8% -23.9% 29% 29% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.9% 29% -22.4%
10% ← realistic here -31.1% 28% -29.9%
15% -37.8% 28% -36.6%
20% -43.9% 28% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses58 / 141
Open positions0
Markets (closed)199 / 199
History coverage6d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day41.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 199 Trades
no open positions (117 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$4 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$3 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$6 +574%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 340 history records