Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:40:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e76…9f93 crypto 178 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$129 (-5%) realized −$129 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate62%111W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$172
other 8% −$10
sports 1% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +4.6% -5.4% 58% 37% -10.7%
≤30d 19 +4.6% -5.4% 58% 37% -10.7%
≤90d 178 -1.6% -11.0% 62% 49% -16.9%
all 178 -1.6% -11.0% 62% 49% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 49% -16.9%
10% -19.5% 37% -24.9%
15% -27.3% 26% -32.2%
20% -34.4% 12% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$129
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses111 / 67
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)178 / 178
History coverage66d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 178 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $61 −$28 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $56 +$2 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $31 +$23 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$1 -3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +24%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$6 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$6 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -45%
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels May 03 $17 −$17 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 03 $5 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 03 $5 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 03 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 03 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 03 $6 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - April 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 22 $10 −$6 -61%
XRP Up or Down - April 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 22 $27 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 22 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 22 $19 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 22 $15 +$3 +22%
XRP Up or Down - April 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 22 $5 −$1 -20%
XRP Up or Down - April 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 22 $14 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 22 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 22 $18 −$6 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 20 $8 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 20 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 20 $11 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - April 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 20 $5 $0 -2%
XRP Up or Down - April 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 20 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 20 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 20 $7 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 20 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 20 $15 −$8 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 20 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 20 $10 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - April 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 20 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 20 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 56¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $9 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $11 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 56¢ $20 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 68¢ $20 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $21 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $31 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 65¢ $5 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $7 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 19h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $10 19h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $9 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $7 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 466 history records