Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:02:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2E 0x2e6d…2a0d politics 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$846 (+4%) realized +$353 · open +$493
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate90%26W / 3L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$477per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$9,875now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$32
14 days+$73
30 days+$255
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% +$467
other 30% +$139
world 15% +$161
finance 11% +$36
crypto 10% −$12
tech 2% +$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -3.6% -12.8% 83% 33% -7.9%
≤30d 26 +1.3% -8.4% 88% 31% -7.0%
≤90d 29 +3.6% -6.3% 90% 31% -6.9%
all 29 +3.6% -6.3% 90% 31% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 31% -6.9%
10% -15.2% 14% -15.8%
15% -23.4% 10% -23.9%
20% -30.9% 3% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$51 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.29 per $1 lost it wins $3.29
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$9,875
Realized+$353
Unrealized+$493
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses26 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions16
Markets (closed)29 / 45
History coverage51d
Avg bet$477
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $5,143 $5,281 +$138 (+3%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $1,330 $1,392 +$62 (+5%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,380 $1,391 +$10 (+1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 68¢ 99¢ $476 $691 +$215 (+45%)
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026? No 73¢ 86¢ $275 $325 +$51 (+18%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $178 $177 −$1 (-1%)
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? No 65¢ 65¢ $152 $152 +$0 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 27, 2026? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $92 $94 +$2 (+3%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $88 $77 −$12 (-13%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $52 $70 +$18 (+35%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 19, 2026? Yes 91¢ 96¢ $45 $48 +$3 (+6%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 22, 2026? Yes 93¢ 96¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+3%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Yes 93¢ 100¢ $42 $45 +$3 (+7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 29, 2026? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? Jun 18 $72 +$8 +11%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $45 +$4 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $81 +$39 +48%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,467 +$33 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $56 +$4 +7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $57 −$56 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $32 −$31 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $69 +$31 +45%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? Jun 11 $45 +$5 +11%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $93 +$7 +8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $92 +$8 +8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $23 +$2 +8%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 08 $285 +$15 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $51 +$4 +8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $16 +$1 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $82 +$12 +15%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,396 +$4 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $191 +$9 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $233 +$56 +24%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $83 +$17 +20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $467 +$33 +7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $374 +$26 +7%
Netanyahu out by May 31? May 29 $3,050 +$44 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $270 +$30 +11%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $466 +$15 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 21 $167 −$65 -39%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $55 +$35 +64%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 10 $764 +$49 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? May 01 $1,990 +$10 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $179 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $2 6h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $2 12h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $44 15h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $92 18h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 43h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $14 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $12 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $81 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $29 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $35 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $19 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $11 4d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 4d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 4d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $42 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $57 6d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $72 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 52¢ $32 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $69 7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $333 8d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $244 8d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $889 8d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 30¢ $88 9d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $45 10d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $93 10d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $56 10d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $52 10d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 77¢ $72 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,874.95 · official $9,874.95 (match) · 130 history records