Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:33:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e6c…e09c sports 1038 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (94 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,304 (-15%) realized −$4,284 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%528W / 493L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day94.0pace
Fees−$382est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$466now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$32
other 12% +$25
world 0% −$71
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (94 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 303 +4.1% -5.8% 50% 49% -6.5%
≤30d 1021 +4.6% -5.3% 52% 50% -10.2%
≤90d 1021 +4.6% -5.3% 52% 50% -10.2%
all 1021 +4.6% -5.3% 52% 50% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover94.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.3% 50% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -14.4% 46% -18.8%
15% -22.7% 39% -26.6%
20% -30.3% 34% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$25 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$466
Realized−$4,284
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses528 / 493
Est. fees paid−$382
Open positions20
Markets (closed)1021 / 1038
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$28
Trades / day94.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 1021 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Magdalena Frech 53¢ 44¢ $92 $76 −$16 (-17%)
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua Linda Noskova 83¢ 82¢ $66 $65 −$0 (-1%)
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Julia Grabher 71¢ 100¢ $36 $50 +$15 (+41%)
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Marton Fucsovics 34¢ 36¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+4%)
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Darya Astakhova 63¢ 62¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-2%)
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Ann Li 50¢ 50¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Mia Ristic 56¢ 60¢ $31 $33 +$2 (+7%)
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Eva Lys 56¢ 56¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Noemi Basiletti 80¢ 38¢ $35 $17 −$18 (-52%)
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini Lucrezia Stefanini 61¢ 60¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-2%)
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Zsombor Piros 13¢ 52¢ $3 $13 +$10 (+300%)
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Raphael Collignon 62¢ 81¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+31%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? No 92¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Kamil Majchrzak 34¢ 34¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Toby Samuel 45¢ 44¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? No 89¢ 90¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Daniel Galan 77¢ 48¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-38%)
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Hugo Gaston 31¢ 34¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+11%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. Samsung Lions LG Twins 55¢ 53¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+8%)
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Arthur Rinderknech 56¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 50¢ 47¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 1 Winner Leo Team 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Chloe Paquet 22¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 16 $9 +$4 +46%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $16 +$9 +54%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 16 $3 $0 +3%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $232 −$224 -96%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $10 +$3 +34%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +140%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$72 -71%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 +$2 +134%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 +$6 +26%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $42 +$14 +32%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $70 +$107 +152%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $6 +$13 +206%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $27 +$4 +14%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $23 −$9 -40%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $71 +$123 +174%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $64 −$56 -87%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $57 −$44 -77%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 +$4 +79%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $22 +$21 +97%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $48 +$32 +67%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $38 +$35 +93%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -71%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $35 +$12 +33%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $1 +$1 +67%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$3 -33%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $7 +$3 +38%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $258 +$623 +241%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $3 +$5 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 36¢ $4 1m
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 43¢ $1 6m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 50¢ $10 8m
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Mia Ristic 57¢ $19 8m
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Mia Ristic 54¢ $12 9m
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Zsombor Piros 13¢ $3 11m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 52¢ $12 15m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 49¢ $12 17m
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua BUY Linda Noskova 83¢ $66 18m
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini BUY Lucrezia Stefanini 61¢ $17 19m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Arthur Rinderknech 56¢ $2 19m
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Darya Astakhova 63¢ $19 20m
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Darya Astakhova 63¢ $19 20m
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 34¢ $37 40m
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 56¢ $13 48m
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet BUY Chloe Paquet 22¢ $3 51m
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 56¢ $26 1h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Noemi Basiletti 80¢ $10 1h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Noemi Basiletti 80¢ $25 1h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 77¢ $8 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 54¢ $12 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 52¢ $11 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 53¢ $21 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 55¢ $11 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 54¢ $19 1h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Kamil Majchrzak 34¢ $9 1h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet BUY Julia Grabher 71¢ $36 1h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 62¢ $10 2h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 45¢ $6 4h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 44¢ $7 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $466.27 · official $466.28 (match) · 3500 history records