Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:20:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e68…6898 other 879 markets active 1h ago coverage 151d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 151d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$569 (-1%) realized −$555 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate58%493W / 364L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,815now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$12
14 days−$43
30 days−$293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% +$30
politics 20% −$34
world 11% −$51
crypto 11% −$15
sports 7% −$46
tech 6% −$10
culture 5% −$13
finance 5% −$48
economics 2% +$100
weather 1% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +7.2% -3.0% 52% 21% -9.7%
≤30d 235 -3.6% -12.8% 49% 17% -10.5%
≤90d 551 -2.3% -11.6% 51% 15% -10.0%
all 857 -1.8% -11.2% 58% 17% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 17% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 10% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 6% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$1,815
Realized−$555
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses493 / 364
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions24
Markets (closed)857 / 879
History coverage151d ⚠
Avg bet$102
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 857 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $300 $300 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 61¢ 58¢ $302 $290 −$12 (-4%)
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $198 $200 +$2 (+1%)
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $120 $120 −$0 (-0%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $120 $120 −$0 (-0%)
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $115 $115 −$0 (-0%)
Will The Weeknd be the top Spotify artist for 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $113 $113 −$0 (-0%)
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $104 $104 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 96¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $94 $94 −$0 (-0%)
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 98¢ 98¢ $81 $81 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 60¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Yamal vs. Mbappe Mbappe 77¢ 87¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Human moon landing in 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $25B? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.1B? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kroger (KR) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 94¢ 92¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? No 60¢ 71¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Hyperliquid listed on Binance in 2026? Yes 40¢ 20¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement? Yes 45¢ 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 17 $230 −$1 -0%
Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $73 −$2 -2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $188 $0 +0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 17 $245 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $356 $0 +0%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$4 +83%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 16 $534 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $125 −$1 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 16 $552 $0 +0%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $180 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $511 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? Jun 16 $125 $0 -0%
Will Romelu Lukaku be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? Jun 15 $193 $0 -0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $169 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $640 $0 -0%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $266 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Germany win on 2026 Jun 15 $1 +$3 +263%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$3 +109%
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $1 +$1 +146%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $100 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$2 -52%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 13 $680 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $187 $0 -0%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? Jun 13 $90 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? Jun 13 $208 $0 +0%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 +$2 +114%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $5 +$2 +38%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $145 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $310 −$1 -0%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $5 +$2 +40%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $89 −$8 -9%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $5 +$7 +140%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? Jun 11 $120 −$1 -1%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $199 $0 -0%
Ilkley: Alex Bolt vs Keegan Smith Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Oracle Q4 Remaining Performance Obligations be above $500B? Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Will Oracle 2026 capital expenditures be above $47.5B? Jun 11 $3 $0 +1%
Will Oracle (ORCL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 11 $3 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $94 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 98¢ $15 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 98¢ $84 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $81 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 99¢ $100 1h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $120 1h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $120 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $88 2h
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $95 15h
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $15 16h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $115 16h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $99 23h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $88 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $100 25h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $124 25h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $64 25h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $99 25h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $5 25h
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 97¢ $100 33h
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.1B? BUY Yes 96¢ $3 39h
Will Kroger (KR) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 39h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $115 39h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $125 39h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $25 39h
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $110 39h
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 39h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $10 39h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $125 39h
Will Romelu Lukaku be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $100 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,815.35 · official $1,815.35 (match) · 3500 history records