Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:03:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e68…682a other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$528 (-20%) realized −$527 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%20W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$304
7 days+$172
14 days+$127
30 days+$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$155
other 41% −$167
world 5% +$5
politics 4% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +40.0% +26.7% 69% 69% +4.7%
≤30d 17 +24.1% +12.2% 65% 65% -0.9%
≤90d 33 -10.1% -18.7% 52% 48% -18.5%
all 44 -17.8% -25.6% 45% 43% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 43% -24.4%
10% -32.7% 39% -31.7%
15% -39.2% 36% -38.3%
20% -45.2% 27% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$54 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$527
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses20 / 24
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage240d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 22 $31 +$57 +185%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $102 +$107 +105%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $131 +$65 +50%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$44 +44%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$58 +57%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $61 −$60 -99%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$58 +57%
Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals Jun 18 $15 +$47 +304%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $101 +$55 +55%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $29 +$10 +34%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 17 $20 +$4 +19%
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $30 −$30 -100%
The Masters 2026: Hole in One? Apr 12 $20 +$17 +85%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Iran strike UAE again in March? Apr 09 $30 +$16 +52%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Andrey Rublev vs Nuno Borges Apr 07 $30 +$12 +42%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Mar 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Will FC Basel 1893 win on 2025-11-27? Mar 31 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Mar 31 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 25, 2026? Mar 31 $40 +$5 +12%
Will Iran strike Iraq again in March? Mar 30 $10 +$1 +9%
Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5 Mar 30 $60 −$38 -63%
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 26, 2026? Mar 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 17 $50 +$29 +59%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Mar 17 $50 +$102 +205%
Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5 Mar 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 11 $40 −$40 -100%
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Sporting CP: Both Teams to Score Mar 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Aztec launch a token in 2025? Mar 11 $100 +$87 +87%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Packers vs. Lions Nov 27 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $30 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $101 2h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $31 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $101 25h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $61 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $101 2d
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $101 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 2d
Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $15 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 4d
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 4d
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 4d
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals BUY No 58¢ $10 9d
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 9d
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 9d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $101 9d
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $29 36d
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $2 71d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 39¢ $30 71d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 74d
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $30 74d
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $30 74d
The Masters 2026: Hole in One? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 74d
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Andrey Rublev vs Nuno Borges BUY Andrey Rublev 70¢ $30 77d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 84¢ $20 83d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY Yes 36¢ $50 83d
Will Iran strike UAE again in March? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.17 · official $49.31 (match) · 75 history records