Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:48:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e67…767b crypto 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$67 (-1%) realized −$241 · open +$174
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%13W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day43.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$574now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$205
other 1% +$5
sports 0% −$6
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -7.6% -16.4% 48% 48% -16.4%
≤30d 27 -7.6% -16.4% 48% 48% -16.4%
≤90d 27 -7.6% -16.4% 48% 48% -16.4%
all 27 -7.6% -16.4% 48% 48% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 48% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 44% -24.4%
15% -31.7% 44% -31.7%
20% -38.4% 37% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$189 vs −$203 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$574
Realized−$241
Unrealized+$174
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses13 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day43.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 49¢ 70¢ $400 $574 +$174 (+43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 22 $832 +$1,029 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $933 −$933 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 22 $676 −$676 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $210 −$210 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $229 −$220 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $372 +$333 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 22 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $374 +$457 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $187 +$224 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 22 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $313 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $125 +$204 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $207 −$207 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $211 +$119 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $16 +$16 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$17 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$24 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$15 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +15%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 +$7 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 −$2 -12%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$6 -54%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $414 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $416 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $416 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $416 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $517 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $209 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $467 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $210 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $21 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $21 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $187 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $20 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $705 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $187 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $186 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $21 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $21 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $21 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $831 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $187 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $187 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $412 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $187 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $208 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $330 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $125 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $573.90 · official $370.39 · 66 history records