Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:46:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e62…b22e sports 136 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (321 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$41,586 (+65%) realized +$42,048 · open −$462
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate44%43W / 54L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$467per market
Trades / day321.3pace
Fees−$537est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$3,573now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$70
politics 37% −$25
other 10% −$902
weather 5% −$117
economics 4% −$7
culture 2% +$120
tech 1% +$124
crypto 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (321 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -13.2% -21.5% 48% 23% -10.2%
≤30d 97 +5.0% -5.0% 44% 25% -10.4%
≤90d 97 +5.0% -5.0% 44% 25% -10.4%
all 97 +5.0% -5.0% 44% 25% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover321.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.0% 25% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.1% 11% -19.0%
15% -22.4% 8% -26.8%
20% -30.0% 6% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$529) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +25% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
14.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$65 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$3,573
Realized+$42,048
Unrealized−$462
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses43 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$537
Open positions124
Markets (closed)97 / 136
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$467
Trades / day321.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 124 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? No 21¢ 44¢ $250 $530 +$280 (+112%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 10¢ 22¢ $120 $258 +$138 (+115%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? No 79¢ 80¢ $247 $252 +$5 (+2%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 82¢ 84¢ $241 $248 +$8 (+3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 43¢ 42¢ $253 $241 −$12 (-5%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 52¢ 44¢ $255 $212 −$43 (-17%)
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026? Yes 17¢ 29¢ $121 $207 +$86 (+71%)
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 85¢ 85¢ $194 $195 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? No 83¢ 100¢ $134 $162 +$28 (+21%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 48¢ 45¢ $144 $135 −$9 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? No 94¢ 96¢ $103 $105 +$2 (+2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? No 34¢ 36¢ $86 $92 +$6 (+7%)
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? Yes 38¢ 35¢ $89 $82 −$7 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? No 82¢ 98¢ $67 $81 +$13 (+20%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $181 $75 −$106 (-58%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $70 $62 −$8 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? No 71¢ 74¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Yes 38¢ 34¢ $54 $48 −$6 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $41 $43 +$1 (+3%)
Will Consensys IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 66¢ 21¢ $119 $38 −$81 (-68%)
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 96¢ 100¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+4%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 24¢ 15¢ $57 $35 −$22 (-38%)
AI bubble burst in 2026? Yes 24¢ 21¢ $35 $31 −$4 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? No 63¢ 54¢ $31 $27 −$5 (-15%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $19 $23 +$4 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $46 +$39 +84%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $348 +$12 +4%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 17 $308 −$4 -1%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $356 +$66 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $70 −$17 -24%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $828 −$90 -11%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $743 +$33 +4%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $415 −$44 -11%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,287 +$204 +16%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $571 −$237 -42%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $249 −$108 -43%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $519 +$305 +59%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $264 +$4 +2%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $272 −$272 -100%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $998 +$152 +15%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 4 Jun 17 $83 +$1 +1%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $1,181 +$15 +1%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $348 −$103 -30%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $711 +$200 +28%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,221 +$261 +21%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $877 +$128 +15%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $436 −$4 -1%
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery Jun 17 $192 −$42 -22%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $680 −$27 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $108 −$44 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $27 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $84 +$15 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $118 −$6 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $44 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $19 −$4 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $132 −$130 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $26 +$11 +43%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $114 +$30 +26%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $748 +$102 +14%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $280 −$32 -11%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $528 +$6 +1%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $250 −$212 -85%
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $253 +$82 +32%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $262 −$182 -69%
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 14 $157 −$64 -41%
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany? Jun 14 $262 +$6 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $851 +$13 +2%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $329 +$21 +6%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $251 −$102 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? SELL No 75¢ $3 2m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 4m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 4m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 6m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 10m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 10m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 12m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 66¢ $20 13m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 59¢ $35 13m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 16m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 51¢ $7 17m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 63¢ $4 18m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 18m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 27m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 27m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 27m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 28¢ $9 28m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 28m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 30m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 66¢ $15 30m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 63¢ $52 32m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 75¢ $20 37m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 67¢ $11 39m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 67¢ $7 39m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 67¢ $0 39m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 67¢ $2 39m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 39m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 65¢ $3 40m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 72¢ $4 42m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 72¢ $7 44m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,573.29 · official $3,573.55 (match) · 3500 history records