Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:19:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e61…19bd world 289 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$3,333 (+1%) realized −$2,190 · open +$5,523
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate51%128W / 125L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,330per market
Trades / day50.7pace
Fees−$920est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$37,290now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$18,891
sports 18% +$28,269
other 13% +$8,824
politics 2% −$913
crypto 0% +$231
finance 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +38.1% +24.9% 62% 60% +27.3%
≤30d 157 +10.2% -0.3% 52% 48% -12.2%
≤90d 253 +13.7% +2.9% 51% 43% -6.3%
all 253 +13.7% +2.9% 51% 43% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.9% 43% -6.3%
10% -6.9% 37% -15.3%
15% ← realistic here -15.9% 34% -23.5%
20% -24.2% 30% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$1,170) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$596 vs −$514 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$37,290
Realized−$2,190
Unrealized+$5,523
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses128 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$920
Open positions39
Markets (closed)253 / 289
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$1,330
Trades / day50.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 253 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? No 78¢ 98¢ $4,222 $5,329 +$1,107 (+26%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 100¢ $4,688 $5,189 +$501 (+11%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 59¢ 91¢ $1,999 $3,086 +$1,087 (+54%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? No 75¢ 94¢ $2,259 $2,847 +$587 (+26%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 49¢ 66¢ $1,832 $2,456 +$624 (+34%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 47¢ 60¢ $1,927 $2,438 +$512 (+27%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 71¢ 97¢ $1,700 $2,328 +$628 (+37%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 11¢ 18¢ $1,320 $2,220 +$900 (+68%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Yes 59¢ 59¢ $1,184 $1,173 −$11 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $880 $1,111 +$231 (+26%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 No 31¢ 52¢ $620 $1,030 +$410 (+66%)
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1,368 $1,016 −$352 (-26%)
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026? No 79¢ 99¢ $700 $880 +$180 (+26%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 53¢ 88¢ $530 $875 +$345 (+65%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 47¢ 98¢ $361 $755 +$394 (+109%)
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 58¢ $560 $585 +$25 (+4%)
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ 54¢ $530 $535 +$5 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $507 $499 −$9 (-2%)
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $747 $457 −$290 (-39%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $500 $375 −$125 (-25%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $444 $288 −$156 (-35%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 21¢ $257 $215 −$42 (-16%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $192 $189 −$3 (-2%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $178 $166 −$12 (-7%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $238 $164 −$74 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will a team from Portugal be the 2026 Europa League winner? Jun 28 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $377 +$423 +112%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 28 $1,170 +$519 +44%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $480 +$520 +108%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $300 −$300 -100%
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $284 −$280 -99%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $261 −$138 -53%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $1,475 −$1,460 -99%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $69 −$68 -100%
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $61 +$109 +178%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $234 +$28 +12%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $240 +$260 +108%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $728 +$572 +79%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $228 −$228 -100%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $560 −$560 -100%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Jun 26 $618 +$201 +32%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $360 −$360 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $64 −$64 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $368 +$432 +117%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $126 +$174 +138%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $1,012 +$640 +63%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $372 +$228 +61%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $306 +$728 +238%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $12 +$9 +75%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $240 +$260 +108%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $150 +$100 +67%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $484 +$453 +94%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $688 +$912 +133%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $909 +$591 +65%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $24 −$23 -98%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 25 $350 −$131 -38%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 25 $66 −$66 -100%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 25 $228 −$228 -100%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 24 $240 +$260 +108%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $266 +$434 +163%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 24 $40 −$18 -45%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $67 +$42 +63%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 24 $1,008 +$70 +7%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $491 +$509 +104%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $920 +$1,037 +113%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $195 +$805 +414%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1,236 +$942 +76%
England vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $2,424 +$1,707 +70%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $115 +$235 +205%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $106 +$394 +372%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $669 −$658 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $459 −$455 -99%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 23 $67 +$138 +207%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $6 1h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $42 1h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $608 1h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 59¢ $528 1h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37,289.75 · official $37,289.80 (match) · 3500 history records