Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:49:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e5f…6128 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$162 (-17%) realized −$142 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +98% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +79% what you keep after slip
Net edge+79%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate15%2W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$216
7 days−$51
14 days−$162
30 days−$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$132
sports 5% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)+78.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +174.9% +148.8% 14% 14% -22.7%
≤30d 13 +97.5% +78.7% 15% 15% -28.2%
≤90d 13 +97.5% +78.7% 15% 15% -28.2%
all 13 +97.5% +78.7% 15% 15% -28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +78.7% 15% -28.2%
10% +61.6% 15% -35.0%
15% +46.0% 15% -41.3%
20% +31.7% 15% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +98% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +175% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$280 vs −$66 · ×4.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$142
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses2 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)13 / 18
History coverage10d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+27%)
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $15 +$281 +1825%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 2 Qatar? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $110 −$107 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $164 −$160 -98%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $73 −$71 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $123 −$120 -98%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $51 +$279 +543%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $39 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 99¢ $297 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 3h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 3h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 3h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 3h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 4d
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 15¢ $104 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $164 6d
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $73 7d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $123 7d
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 7d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 7d
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $330 9d
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 9d
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.48 · official $113.48 (match) · 21 history records