Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:54:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e5b…5408 crypto 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$99 (-18%) realized −$98 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%52W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$96
other 6% −$16
sports 2% −$3
world 1% +$3
politics 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -5.5% -14.5% 61% 43% -17.1%
≤30d 129 -26.2% -33.2% 40% 35% -28.8%
≤90d 129 -26.2% -33.2% 40% 35% -28.8%
all 129 -26.2% -33.2% 40% 35% -28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.2% 35% -28.8%
10% -39.6% 31% -35.6%
15% -45.4% 28% -41.8%
20% -50.8% 24% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$98
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses52 / 77
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)129 / 131
History coverage29d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? No 41¢ 28¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-33%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 22¢ 31¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 16 $6 +$3 +45%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $4 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$7 +83%
Figueira Da Foz: Carolyn Ansari vs Barbora Palicova Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +105%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$5 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 09 $7 +$6 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$5 +164%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$4 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $7 −$4 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? May 26 $32 −$2 -5%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 26 $3 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 26 $4 −$3 -91%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 26 $16 −$12 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 26 $3 +$2 +75%
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 25 $7 −$6 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET May 24 $6 −$2 -36%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 24 $5 +$4 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET May 24 $6 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 24 $9 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 24 $10 +$4 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +29%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 24 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 24 $4 +$12 +284%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 24 $17 −$15 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 41¢ $9 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 15¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 15h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 15h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 15h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 15h
Figueira Da Foz: Carolyn Ansari vs Barbora Palicova BUY Carolyn Ansari 40¢ $2 15h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $2 15h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2 15h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 21¢ $2 39h
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? BUY No 41¢ $1 39h
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? BUY No 41¢ $2 39h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 22¢ $2 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 39h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar SELL Anna Blinkova 72¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 44h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $4 45h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2 45h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.00 · official $1.83 (match) · 385 history records