Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:44:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e5b…3eaf politics 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%4W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$2
other 22% $0
sports 19% −$1
world 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
all 20 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses4 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage173d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $119 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $119 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $120 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $120 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $120 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $121 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 29 $243 $0 +0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 22 $243 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Mar 17 $243 $0 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $243 $0 +0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 07 $245 −$1 -1%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 05 $245 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $488 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 2, 2026 (ET)? Feb 06 $244 $0 +0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 29 $236 $0 -0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 03 $231 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 03 $235 $0 -0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 02 $234 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 31 $235 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 30 $233 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $119 1h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $119 12h
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $119 18d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $119 19d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $120 29d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $120 30d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $120 34d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $83 35d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 35d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $120 40d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $120 41d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $121 63d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $121 64d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 100¢ $243 81d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $79 81d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $41 81d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $123 81d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $243 87d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 88d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $166 88d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $71 88d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $243 92d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $93 92d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $81 92d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $70 92d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $243 95d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $243 95d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $243 102d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $245 102d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $245 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 77 history records