Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:12:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2E
0x2e59…123e
other · 34 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$94 +18%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$107 · open −$11
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$17
Realized+$107
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions24
Markets (closed)8 / 34
History coverage6d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 24 History 8 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$92
7 days+$107
14 days+$107
30 days+$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 49¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026? Yes 29¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Will an independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Yes 31¢ 20¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-35%)
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Deel IPO before 2027? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027? Yes 26¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 23¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Will UNI reach $11.00 by December 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Will Steve Bannon announce a presidential run before 2027? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Kenyan McDuffie win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary? Yes 20¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-48%)
Pacifica FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 13¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-35%)
Will the Republicans win the Colorado Senate race in 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Will Ivanka Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Waymo operate in 6 cities on June 30 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-29%)
Will Perplexity’s market cap be greater than $100B at market close on IPO day? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 41¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-96%)
Will Hillary Clinton announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+14%)
Will the Democrats win the Montana Senate race in 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +11%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $171 −$4 -2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $23 $0 -2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $82 +$85 +104%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $25 +$10 +41%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $46 +$9 +19%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $29 $0 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $5 +$6 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 73% +$90
politics 13% +$6
sports 11% +$6
world 3% −$5
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? A BUY 31¢ $82 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 32¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $4 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $167 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $171 11h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 81¢ $4 13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $167 13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $45 16h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $37 43h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 43h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 47h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 92¢ $5 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 90¢ $4 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 89¢ $4 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 89¢ $4 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 90¢ $4 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 64¢ $3 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 89¢ $4 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 89¢ $4 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 35¢ $2 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $4 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 81¢ $4 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 84¢ $4 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 77¢ $4 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +35.8% +22.9% 62% 62% +15.2%
≤30d 8 +35.8% +22.9% 62% 62% +15.2%
≤90d 8 +35.8% +22.9% 62% 62% +15.2%
all 8 +35.8% +22.9% 62% 62% +15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.9% 62% +15.2%
10% +11.1% 38% +4.2%
15% +0.4% 38% -5.9%
20% -9.4% 25% -15.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.36 · official $107.36 · 115 history records