Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:07:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e54…6227 politics 35 markets active 2d ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%2W / 33L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$520per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$10
other 30% −$6
world 10% −$2
crypto 6% −$2
sports 6% −$1
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 35 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 35 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$979) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses2 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage78d
Avg bet$520
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $961 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $33 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $2,058 −$3 -0%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the e Jun 13 $51 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,143 −$2 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,108 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 13 $1,114 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $54 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,061 −$2 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,059 −$2 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $65 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Jun 11 $1,078 −$2 -0%
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 13 $102 $0 -0%
Will Asaad Alnajjar win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 13 $25 $0 -0%
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i Apr 16 $31 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $996 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $36 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $970 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $951 −$1 -0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Apr 14 $922 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $948 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets in April 2026? Apr 13 $919 −$1 -0%
Will Poland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? Apr 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $939 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 13 $979 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 03 $105 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $86 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 03 $23 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 29 $24 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 29 $21 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $45 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $16 2d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $11 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $14 2d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $13 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 2d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 2d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the e SELL No 99¢ $51 4d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,141 4d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the e BUY No 100¢ $17 4d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,091 4d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the e BUY No 100¢ $12 4d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the e BUY No 100¢ $22 4d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $160 4d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 4d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $847 4d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 4d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $265 4d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,114 4d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,030 5d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 5d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,005 5d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $754 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $54 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $305 5d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 122 history records