Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:33:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

2E 0x2e50…9d71 crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$60 (+19%) realized +$72 · open −$12

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +69% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +46% what you keep after slip

Net edge+46%after slip

Net WR57%break-even

Win rate57%12W / 9L

Drawdown54%max

Avg bet$13per market

Trades / day3.2pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit62%portable

Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$33

7 days+$48

14 days+$50

30 days+$50

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +57%

net ROI/market (all)+52.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	+60.7%	+45.4%	58%	58%	+8.9%
≤30d	21	+68.6%	+52.5%	57%	57%	+8.6%
≤90d	21	+68.6%	+52.5%	57%	57%	+8.6%
all	21	+68.6%	+52.5%	57%	57%	+8.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+52.5%	57%	+8.6%
10%	+37.9%	52%	-1.8%
15%	+24.6%	52%	-11.3%
20%	+12.4%	38%	-20.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 36% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +69% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +114% → late +28% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$12 vs −$11 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$28

Realized+$72

Unrealized−$12

Win rate (resolved)57%

Wins / losses12 / 9

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)21 / 24

History coverage8d

Avg bet$13

Trades / day3.2

Drawdown54%

Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	61¢	43¢	$40	$28	−$12 (-30%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Jun 25	$20	−$20	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Jun 25	$21	+$15	+75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Jun 25	$41	+$20	+48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Jun 25	$42	−$42	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Jun 25	$16	+$53	+336%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw?	Jun 25	$2	−$2	-98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$28	+$14	+50%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Jun 23	$2	+$5	+250%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$14	+$6	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Jun 22	$5	−$5	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Jun 21	$10	+$1	+14%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$4	−$4	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Jun 21	$5	+$3	+55%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 21	$1	+$9	+874%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$5	+$7	+146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Jun 20	$5	+$3	+60%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Jun 18	$3	+$12	+388%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	BUY Up	68¢	$20	6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	BUY Down	55¢	$21	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	61¢	$40	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	BUY Up	66¢	$41	13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	BUY Down	8¢	$21	13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	BUY Down	72¢	$20	13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	BUY Up	22¢	$16	16h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	37¢	$10	18h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw?	BUY Yes	38¢	$2	18h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	66¢	$28	21h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$2	47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$14	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	BUY Up	59¢	$5	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	BUY Down	86¢	$5	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	BUY Down	87¢	$5	4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	16¢	$4	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	BUY Up	63¢	$5	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	40¢	$5	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	BUY Up	35¢	$5	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	BUY Up	61¢	$5	5d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	10¢	$1	5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY	28¢	$13	6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	9¢	$1	6d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-	BUY	12¢	$3	7d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$3	7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	48¢	$10	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.14 · official $28.14 (match) · 42 history records