Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:16:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2E 0x2e50…1900 world 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 269d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate33%14W / 28L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$1
other 22% $0
politics 18% $0
crypto 7% $0
economics 6% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.1% -7.6% 57% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 10 +1.5% -8.2% 40% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 10 +1.5% -8.2% 40% 0% -9.2%
all 42 +0.8% -8.8% 33% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 5% -9.4%
10% -17.6% 2% -18.1%
15% -25.5% 2% -26.0%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage269d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $72 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $3 $0 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $38 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $37 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $38 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 05 $1 $0 -19%
Will Germany recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 05 $27 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 05 $26 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 05 $53 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 01 $26 $0 -0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Oct 01 $4 $0 -3%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 30 $19 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 30 $1 $0 +22%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 30 $5 $0 -0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 30 $2 +$1 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 202 Sep 30 $18 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Sep 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 30 $26 $0 +1%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in September? Sep 26 $2 $0 -10%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $28 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 25 $25 $0 -1%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in September? Sep 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $2 $0 -3%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 23 $2 $0 -1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 23 $4 $0 -2%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 23 $25 $0 -0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 22 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $38 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $38 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 9h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 9h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $28 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $7 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $8 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $27 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $3 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $32 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $35 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $38 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 50¢ $38 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $37 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $26 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $11 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $9 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $29 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $38 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $8 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $30 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $37 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 157 history records