Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:20:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e4e…2e7e other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 306d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate36%15W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$2
world 29% −$4
politics 15% $0
economics 6% $0
culture 5% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 3% +$1
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -11.7%
≤30d 12 -0.6% -10.1% 25% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 12 -0.6% -10.1% 25% 0% -10.4%
all 42 +1.1% -8.5% 36% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 5% -9.6%
10% -17.3% 5% -18.2%
15% -25.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -32.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

306d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses15 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage306d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $34 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $57 −$2 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $34 −$2 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $68 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $34 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $14 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Dec 30 $1 $0 -4%
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 10? Oct 13 $12 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Oct 10 $4 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with President of F Oct 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $37 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Oct 09 $13 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Oct 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Oct 06 $27 +$2 +7%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 05 $1 $0 -5%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 02 $7 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 30 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $1 $0 +29%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by August 31? Aug 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 26 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? Aug 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 25 $24 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 25 $3 +$1 +24%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 22 $39 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $34 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $34 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $12 7h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $10 7h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $4 7h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 46¢ $24 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 20h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $8 31h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $21 31h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 58¢ $24 33h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 58¢ $9 33h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $33 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $4 16d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $31 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $35 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $34 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $31 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $3 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $34 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $33 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $14 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $14 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $21 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 152 history records