Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:23:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2E
0x2e4d…f703
crypto · 36 markets active 1d ago
0.0score
−$188,373 -40%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$130,448 · open −$50,679
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$127,301
Realized−$130,448
Unrealized−$50,679
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses21 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions12
Markets (closed)27 / 36
History coverage70d
Avg bet$12,995
Trades / day46.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 12 History 27 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,204
7 days+$3,204
14 days−$187,679
30 days−$186,874
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 24¢ 15¢ $112,564 $70,674 −$41,890 (-37%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $13,940 $15,385 +$1,445 (+10%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 87¢ 94¢ $13,870 $15,016 +$1,146 (+8%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 27¢ 32¢ $9,412 $10,887 +$1,475 (+16%)
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? No 70¢ 75¢ $4,686 $5,037 +$350 (+7%)
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 Yes 41¢ 26¢ $6,056 $3,880 −$2,176 (-36%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 73¢ 16¢ $13,575 $3,069 −$10,505 (-77%)
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? Yes 30¢ 22¢ $2,053 $1,481 −$572 (-28%)
Epstein client list released by June 30? No 79¢ 98¢ $790 $978 +$188 (+24%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 99¢ $564 $596 +$32 (+6%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? No 80¢ 99¢ $201 $248 +$47 (+23%)
Will STRC market cap hit $12B by June 30? Yes 45¢ $270 $51 −$219 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
OKX IPO in 2026? Jun 11 $2,400 +$3,204 +134%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $219,863 −$191,347 -87%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $11,905 −$9,430 -79%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $15,984 −$7,474 -47%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 01 $8,695 +$2,862 +33%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $9,499 +$2,501 +26%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $3,802 +$398 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 29 $16,295 +$1,633 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 29 $7,517 +$2,030 +27%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 29 $23,953 +$8,047 +34%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 28 $4,213 +$1,375 +33%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25? May 26 $4,477 +$50 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 24 $620 −$620 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? May 04 $9,715 +$4,905 +50%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 01 $5,563 +$2,537 +46%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 01 $17,826 +$5,487 +31%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 01 $11,834 +$13,295 +112%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? May 01 $17,816 +$8,304 +47%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 01 $22,429 +$21,448 +96%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 14-20? Apr 20 $1,463 +$37 +2%
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 800k+ BTC by December 31, 2026? Apr 20 $1,534 +$2,423 +158%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 15 $4,917 −$3,455 -70%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April? Apr 15 $4,555 +$145 +3%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 7-13? Apr 13 $1,931 +$69 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 10 $655 +$205 +31%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 31-April 6? Apr 06 $2,174 +$1,026 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 62% −$205,377
finance 27% +$63,457
other 7% +$5,740
politics 3% −$41,890
sports 1% −$3,455
world 1% +$398
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
OKX IPO in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $92 34h
OKX IPO in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $20 2d
OKX IPO in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $129 3d
OKX IPO in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $1 3d
OKX IPO in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $9 3d
OKX IPO in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $100 4d
OKX IPO in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $100 4d
OKX IPO in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $100 4d
OKX IPO in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $359 6d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $599 9d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $1,680 9d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 18¢ $323 10d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 10d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 10d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 10d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 10d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 10d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 10d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 10d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 10d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 10d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 10d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 10d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 10d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 10d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 10d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 10d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 10d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 10d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 18¢ $1,440 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +133.5% +111.3% 100% 100% +111.3%
≤30d 14 -7.5% -16.3% 64% 43% -60.9%
≤90d 27 +16.7% +5.6% 78% 56% -36.9%
all 27 +16.7% +5.6% 78% 56% -36.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover46.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.6% 56% -36.9%
10% -4.5% 56% -42.9%
15% ← realistic here -13.7% 30% -48.4%
20% -22.2% 19% -53.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127,301.26 · official $127,301.26 (match) · 3500 history records