Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:34:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e4c…927a sports 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$95 (-26%) realized −$93 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%9W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$84
14 days−$92
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$76
politics 16% +$2
other 8% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-39.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -39.3% -45.1% 24% 24% -45.9%
≤30d 33 -32.9% -39.3% 27% 27% -40.0%
≤90d 33 -32.9% -39.3% 27% 27% -40.0%
all 33 -32.9% -39.3% 27% 27% -40.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.3% 27% -40.0%
10% -45.1% 27% -45.7%
15% -50.4% 27% -51.0%
20% -55.3% 27% -55.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$8 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$93
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses9 / 24
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)33 / 36
History coverage23d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 52¢ 55¢ $55 $58 +$2 (+4%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Yes 38¢ 38¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $9 +$20 +238%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $6 +$6 +105%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $10 +$16 +158%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $17 −$17 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $15 −$14 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 +$10 +188%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $9 −$8 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $18 −$17 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $12 −$11 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $10 +$13 +128%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$10 +101%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $13 −$12 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $6 −$6 -98%
Brazil vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $7 +$8 +114%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $8 +$9 +109%
Brazil vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $10 +$17 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $11 2h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 55¢ $31 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $6 11h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 27¢ $3 12h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $9 13h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 55¢ $16 22h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 22h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $9 42h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $9 42h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 32¢ $15 44h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 38¢ $10 44h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $2 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $5 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 22¢ $9 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 33¢ $10 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 23¢ $2 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $18 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $12 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $6 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $5 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $7 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $5 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $10 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 43¢ $10 5d
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $5 5d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 5d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $20 5d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $13 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.35 · official $73.35 (match) · 50 history records